The Conservative Party's 2024 manifesto and its 2025 to 2026 opposition position read as documents from two different parties. Kemi Badenoch has not adjusted manifesto positions under opposition discipline. She has discarded them and replaced them with harder alternatives. The pattern is not refinement. It is capitulation to Reform UK.
On climate the manifesto reaffirmed the 2050 net zero target as legally binding with small modular reactors, carbon capture clusters and trebled offshore wind. On 18 March 2025 Badenoch formally abandoned the target, calling it impossible and fantasy politics. This ended the cross party consensus that had held since Theresa May legislated the goal in 2019. The Conservatives did not amend the manifesto position. They discarded it.
On Europe the manifesto pledged Conservatives would remain within the European Convention on Human Rights, legislating only to disregard interim Rule 39 orders from Strasbourg. On 4 October 2025 Badenoch announced leaving the ECHR and repealing the Human Rights Act is now official party policy, backed by a Shadow Cabinet endorsed legal review by Lord Wolfson KC. The manifesto position survived fifteen months.
On immigration the manifesto promised a binding annual cap on work and family visas, monthly Rwanda flights and full commencement of the Illegal Migration Act 2023. At the October 2025 conference Badenoch unveiled a plan to deport 750,000 illegal migrants over five years via a new UK removals force modelled on US ICE, permanent asylum bars on illegal entrants, abolition of the Immigration Tribunal and a refugee definition restricted to those persecuted by foreign governments. The manifesto framed immigration as an enforcement problem. The opposition policy reframes it as a removal operation.
On welfare the manifesto banked £12 billion of annual savings through tighter work capability assessments and PIP reforms for mental health conditions. By 2025 the Conservatives had expanded that to £23 billion of non pensioner welfare cuts, restricting PIP and sickness top ups to UK citizens only, mandating face to face assessments, and barring anxiety and ADHD from being treated as severe conditions. The manifesto's £12 billion was an austerity envelope. The opposition policy is an exclusion policy.
On the economy the manifesto promised £17 billion of tax cuts headlined by a 2p National Insurance cut, abolition of self employed NI, Triple Lock Plus and stamp duty relief for first time buyers. At the October 2025 conference Badenoch signalled a £47 billion package of public spending cuts with abolition of stamp duty on all primary residences. The manifesto offered targeted relief. The opposition is rebuilding a Thatcherite tax and state architecture.
On the NHS the manifesto committed unconditionally to free care at the point of use and 92,000 more nurses by 2030. As a leadership candidate Badenoch publicly floated insurance based alternatives and told an interviewer it might be that the public decide the NHS should no longer be free at point of use. The manifesto sold the existing funding model. The leader has questioned whether to sell it at all.
The silence is revealing. The manifesto's pledges on 2.5 per cent defence spending by 2030, 8,000 additional police officers, mandatory whole life orders, the Advanced British Standard, mandatory National Service at 18, English devolution by 2030 and a Backing Drivers Bill have all been left unmentioned. Either the party still holds them and does not think them worth campaigning on, or it does not hold them and has not said so.
This is not a party adjusting under opposition discipline. This is a party chasing Reform UK by occupying the ground Reform already holds. The Conservatives have abandoned net zero, questioned the NHS funding model, escalated welfare cuts from £12bn to £23bn, moved from cap and Rwanda to removal operations, and signalled £47bn spending cuts. They have left their commitments on defence, police, education and crime completely unmentioned. The 2024 manifesto is not being refined. It is being replaced. What the Conservatives have not shown is whether they believe in anything beyond what Reform voters want.
The 2024 manifesto promised £17 billion of tax cuts by 2029/30, headlined by a further 2p cut to employee National Insurance taking it to 6 per cent, the abolition of the main rate of self employed National Insurance, and a new Triple Lock Plus that raised the personal allowance for pensioners in line with the State Pension. The party pledged no rise in income tax, no rise in VAT and no rise in corporation tax, with cuts to be funded by £12 billion of welfare savings and reductions in tax avoidance. Stamp duty for first time buyers would be permanently abolished on homes up to £425,000.
At the October 2025 conference Badenoch unveiled a fiscal golden rule and pledged to abolish stamp duty on primary residences entirely, going well beyond the 2024 first time buyer threshold and signalling a broader £47 billion package of public spending cuts to fund across the board reductions.
The Conservatives pledged to increase NHS spending above inflation every year, deliver the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan with 92,000 more nurses and 28,000 more doctors by 2030, and recruit 8,000 more full time equivalent GPs while building or modernising 250 GP surgeries and 50 community diagnostic centres. The manifesto committed £125 million for dentistry covering 700,000 urgent appointments a year, 8,500 additional mental health staff, and Mental Health Support Teams in every school and college by 2030. Minimum service levels would be legislated for during strikes.
Badenoch has publicly questioned whether the NHS can remain free at the point of use indefinitely and has floated insurance based alternatives, a departure from the manifesto's unqualified commitment to the existing funding model.
The manifesto promised a binding annual cap on work and family visas set on Migration Advisory Committee advice and voted on by Parliament, alongside a regular rhythm of monthly Rwanda removal flights starting in July 2024 and full commencement of the Illegal Migration Act 2023. It pledged to clear the asylum backlog with all claims processed within six months, raise salary thresholds in line with rising wages, and end the graduate visa route abuse. The party committed to remain inside the ECHR but to disregard interim Rule 39 orders that blocked removals.
At the October 2025 conference Badenoch announced a plan to deport 750,000 illegal migrants over five years via a new UK removals force modelled on US ICE, permanent bars on asylum for illegal entrants, abolition of the Immigration Tribunal, and a narrowed refugee definition restricted to those persecuted by foreign governments.
The Conservatives pledged to introduce mandatory National Service at 18 with a choice between a competitive military placement or one weekend a month of civic volunteering, funded by a £2.5 billion a year budget by 2029/30. They committed to roll out the Advanced British Standard replacing A levels and T Levels with English and maths to 18, create 100,000 more apprenticeships funded by closing university courses with the worst graduate outcomes, and ban mobile phones in schools. The Lifelong Learning Entitlement would launch in 2025.
The manifesto reaffirmed the legally binding 2050 net zero target but pledged a pragmatic and proportionate path that rejected new green levies, road pricing and meat taxes. It committed to legislate for annual North Sea oil and gas licensing rounds, approve two Small Modular Reactor fleets within 100 days, treble offshore wind, and back two carbon capture and storage clusters. Policy costs on household energy bills were to be lower in every year of the next Parliament than in 2023.
On 18 March 2025 Badenoch formally abandoned the 2050 net zero target, calling it impossible and fantasy politics, and ending the cross party consensus that had held since Theresa May legislated the goal in 2019.
The Conservatives pledged to deliver 1.6 million new homes in England over the next Parliament, averaging 320,000 a year, through fast track brownfield planning in the 20 largest cities while maintaining cast iron green belt protections. They committed to a new Help to Buy scheme offering first time buyers an equity loan of up to 20 per cent on a 5 per cent deposit, permanent abolition of stamp duty for first time buyers up to £425,000, and capping ground rents at £250 falling to a peppercorn. Renters Reform legislation would end Section 21 evictions once court reforms were in place.
At the October 2025 conference Badenoch went beyond the manifesto's first time buyer relief and pledged to abolish stamp duty on primary residences entirely, a measure scoring at roughly £12 billion in foregone revenue.
The manifesto banked £12 billion of annual welfare savings to part fund the National Insurance cuts, principally by tightening the work capability assessment, moving Personal Independence Payment away from cash transfers for some mental health conditions, and reforming the fit note system so that signoff would no longer be done by GPs by default. The party pledged to keep the benefits cap, maintain the two child limit, and require those out of work for more than 12 months to take mandatory work placements or lose entitlement.
In 2025 the Conservatives expanded the manifesto position by pledging £23 billion of non pensioner welfare cuts, restricting PIP and sickness top ups to UK citizens only, mandating face to face PIP assessments, and barring anxiety and ADHD from being treated as severe conditions.
The Conservatives pledged to recruit an additional 8,000 neighbourhood police officers, give every community a named officer, and make whole life orders mandatory for more of the worst murders including those involving sadistic or sexual conduct. Sentences for rape and serious sexual offences would require the full custodial term to be served in prison, and tougher sentencing was promised for knife crime, grooming gangs and assaults on retail workers. The party committed to expanding the prison estate by 20,000 places and banning protests outside schools.
The manifesto committed to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 on a fully funded path, described as the largest sustained increase since the Cold War, and to maintain the UK as the largest defence power in Europe. It pledged continued military, financial and diplomatic support for Ukraine for as long as it takes, full commitment to NATO including the nuclear deterrent and four new Dreadnought submarines, and recognition of a Palestinian state only at the right moment in a peace process. AUKUS and GCAP would be progressed.
The manifesto framed Brexit as settled and ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union, while pledging to use regulatory freedoms through smarter regulation reviews and to maintain the Windsor Framework. The party committed to remain inside the European Convention on Human Rights but to legislate to disregard interim Rule 39 orders from the Strasbourg court that blocked Rwanda removals, and to keep the option of leaving the ECHR open if the Convention continued to prevent border control.
On 4 October 2025 Badenoch announced at conference that leaving the ECHR and repealing the Human Rights Act is now official Conservative policy, backed by a Shadow Cabinet endorsed legal review by Lord Wolfson KC, and will appear in the next manifesto.
The manifesto offered a devolution deal to every part of England that wanted one by 2030 while opposing further transfers of power to the Scottish Parliament, Senedd or Stormont and pledging to legislate against the Welsh 20mph default speed limit through a Backing Drivers Bill. It promised a post Brexit constitutional review to examine the role of the House of Lords, prerogative powers, the courts and the Human Rights Act 1998, but proposed no specific Lords reform and no changes to the voting system or the franchise.
