In charge of Britain's armed forces, the nuclear deterrent, and the running argument about whether 2% of GDP is enough.


The Ministry of Defence exists to perform the most fundamental duty of any state: protecting the nation from external threats. Everything else government does ultimately depends on that security being in place. After decades in which the working assumption was that large scale war between major powers had become unlikely, the money is finally rising again. The core defence budget is £61.7 billion in 2025/26, planned to grow by £13.3 billion over five years. Spending is heading to 2.6 percent of GDP by 2027, on the path to NATO's new target of 3.5 percent by 2035. These are the largest sustained increases in military spending since the Cold War. Whether they arrive fast enough to reverse decades of decline is the question that now defines every decision the department makes.
The first problem is that the department has struggled to hold on to its own leadership. Nine Defence Secretaries have served since 2010: Liam Fox, who resigned over the Werritty affair, Philip Hammond, Michael Fallon, who resigned over allegations of inappropriate behaviour, Gavin Williamson, sacked over the Huawei leak, Penny Mordaunt, who lasted 85 days, Ben Wallace, the longest serving since Heseltine, Grant Shapps, John Healey, who resigned in June 2026 warning that the government's defence funding plan could make the country less safe, and Dan Jarvis, appointed on 12 June 2026. Three resigned, one was sacked and one lasted under three months. The department responsible for protecting the nation from external threats has been unable to protect itself from internal political turbulence.
Jarvis at least arrives with more frontline military experience than any Defence Secretary in decades. A former Major in the Parachute Regiment, aide de camp to General Sir Mike Jackson, a company commander in the Special Forces Support Group and a holder of the MBE, he served on deployments across Kosovo, Northern Ireland, Sierra Leone, Iraq and Afghanistan. Few of his recent predecessors had seen combat at all. He inherits a department in crisis.
The armed forces are shrinking. All three branches are below the target sizes set in the 2021 Defence Command Paper, and the regular Army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy have each more than halved since 1985. In the last full year the forces were losing 300 more full time personnel each month than they were recruiting. Fewer than one in ten applicants who began the process in 2023 actually joined, and service morale fell to record lows. The government has awarded a £1.3 billion contract to Serco for a new Armed Forces Recruitment Service launching in 2027, replacing the three separate systems each branch ran. Healey told the Defence Select Committee that deep set problems had plagued recruitment and retention for years. His successor must now decide whether the shortfall can be fixed through better recruitment, or whether the armed forces the country says it needs simply cannot be sustained at the required size.
Equipment procurement consumes nearly half the entire budget, around 49 percent. The Strategic Defence Review published under Healey recommended accelerating the shift to a high low mix of high end and lower cost equipment, including autonomous vessels, drones and AI enabled capabilities. The government has committed to a New Hybrid Navy of new warships, support ships and autonomous platforms, and to developing the aircraft carriers into full carrier strike groups. At least £1 billion has been earmarked for digital capabilities, including an integrated Digital Targeting Web and a new CyberEM Command.
The war in Ukraine forced the most urgent reckoning. The government has committed £2.5 billion to rebuild ammunition stockpiles and scale up domestic production, including six new munitions factories and the procurement of up to 7,000 British built long range weapons. Britain provided significant military support to Ukraine, but the conflict exposed how quickly decades of procurement assumptions could be invalidated. Modern high intensity war consumes ammunition at industrial rates, and Britain's defence industrial base had been allowed to contract to the point where surge production was no longer possible. The country needed six new factories because its existing capacity had been run down too far.
Behind all of it sits the question of money. The 10 year defence investment plan that was supposed to accompany the November 2025 Budget was delayed, and Healey resigned over the adequacy of the funding settlement, which suggests the plan still does not match the threat. The gap between what the Strategic Defence Review says Britain needs and what the Treasury is willing to provide is the fracture line that ended Healey's tenure and now defines Jarvis's.
The department can point to genuine strengths. Britain's armed forces remain among the most professional in the world. The nuclear deterrent provides strategic weight that few other nations possess. British special forces are internationally respected. NATO remains the most successful military alliance in history, and Britain plays a central role within it. The spending increases are real, and they represent a significant political commitment at a time when other budgets are under severe strain.
What concerns defence professionals and the public alike is the gap between commitment and capacity. Britain describes itself as a leading military power while its army is smaller than at almost any point in modern history, its recruitment system cannot fill the ranks, its equipment programmes routinely overrun and its most recent Defence Secretary resigned saying the money was not enough. A department spending £61.7 billion a year that cannot recruit enough soldiers, that needed six new factories because its ammunition production had been allowed to collapse, and that has cycled through nine leaders in sixteen years is not a department that has matched its resources to its ambitions. Dan Jarvis has the military credibility to challenge that record. Whether he has the political capital and the Treasury support to change it is the test that now begins.
Senior Civil Service
The politicians change. These people often stay for years.
Board Members
Armed forces personnel and equipment, MOD operations, the AUKUS submarine programme, the Trident nuclear deterrent and military, financial and intelligence support to Ukraine. The unusually high Capital DEL share, about a third of the total, reflects the equipment programme, particularly Dreadnought, F-35, the Type 26 frigate programme and the British Army's Ajax. Set to rise sharply through the parliament as the 2.5% of GDP commitment comes forward to 2027.
We advise the Secretary of State for Defence on all conscientious objection claims. These claims are made by those in the armed forces whose application for permission to retire, resign or be discharged have been…
The Advisory Group on Military and Emergency Response Medicine (AGMERM) provides specialist advice to the Ministry of Defence on the medical aspects of defence against chemical, biological and radiological threats.
The Armed Forces’ Pay Review Body (AFPRB) provides independent advice to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Defence on the pay and charges for members of the Naval, Military and Air Forces of the Crown.
The Central Advisory Committee on Compensation (CAC Compensation) gives advice on all service compensation schemes and on policy issues related to them. CAC Compensation works with the Ministry of Defence .
We are “always on” – ready to fight globally across all domains to make the UK secure at home and strong abroad. Detecting threats early and responding with specialist capabilities to out think, out pace and out fight…
As an arm’s length body of the Ministry of Defence, we deliver equipment and support services to the Royal Navy, British Army, and Royal Air Force. DE&S is an executive agency, sponsored by the Ministry of Defence .
The Defence Infrastructure Organisation (DIO) is the estate expert for defence, supporting the armed forces to enable military capability by planning, building, maintaining, and servicing infrastructure.
Our mission is to keep safe and capable submarines at sea, maintain our nuclear warheads and deliver the nuclear deterrent to protect national and global security. DNE is part of the Ministry of Defence .
Our mission is to keep safe and capable submarines at sea, maintain our nuclear warheads and deliver the nuclear deterrent to protect national and global security.
The Defence Nuclear Safety Expert Committee (DNSEC) is a public body classified as an Expert Committee. Its purpose is to be a key source of independent advice to the Ministry of Defence.
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The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) brings mission success to UK defence and security through science and technology advantage. Dstl is an executive agency, sponsored by the Ministry of Defence .
The Independent Medical Expert Group advises the Minister for Veterans and People on medical and scientific aspects of Armed Forces Compensation Scheme (AFCS) and related matters.
We are Cyber & Specialist Operations Command’s innovation team, connecting world class technology and talent with users across Defence.
The primary purpose of the King’s Harbour Master (KHM) is to protect the port, the Royal Navy and its vessels and other government assets. KHM is part of the Ministry of Defence .
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The National Cyber Force (NCF) is a partnership between defence and intelligence. NCF is part of the Ministry of Defence , the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory , the Secret Intelligence Service , and the…
We develop and operate the UK’s space surveillance and protection capabilities. NSpOC is part of the Ministry of Defence , the UK Space Agency , and the Met Office .
The NRAC provides independent, external, evidence based advice to the MOD Chief Scientific Adviser, MOD Defence Nuclear Organisation Managing Director Warhead Group, Chief Defence Nuclear and other senior MOD officials.
We lead the UK government’s efforts to ensure our veterans get the respect, support and recognition they deserve and are owed due to their service. OVA is part of the Ministry of Defence .
We give advice and assistance to the Defence Council, and to the army, navy and air force on matters that concern reserves and cadets.
The Submarine Delivery Agency (SDA) is an Executive Agency of the Ministry of Defence (MOD). SDA is an executive agency, sponsored by the Ministry of Defence .
We are a statutory public corporation, sponsored by the Secretary of State for Defence, formed in 1986 by virtue of the Oil and Pipelines Act 1985.
Defence and security advantage through innovation UKDI is part of the Ministry of Defence .
The UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) is a world leading centre for hydrography, delivering data and expertise to support safe, secure and thriving oceans. UKHO is an executive agency, sponsored by the Ministry of Defence .
The United Kingdom Reserve Forces Association (UKRFA) promotes the efficiency of the reserve forces by providing opportunities for education, personal development and international experiences.
We serve and support ex servicemen and women, their widows or widowers and their immediate family members. We are an independent voice, here to help you whenever or wherever you served, whether in World War 2 or…
We provide free support for veterans and their families, including a helpline, Veterans Welfare Service, Defence Transition Services and injury/bereavement compensation scheme payments.
