The defence investment row is now a credibility story, not a spending story.
The government published a plan promising to lift defence spending towards 2.7 percent of GDP by 2027/28, with total annual funding rising from £54 billion to almost £80 billion by 2029/30. The headline commitment is real. The NATO obligation is being addressed faster than any recent government has managed. That deserves acknowledgment.
The problem is the £4.7 billion that has not been found.
Sky News reported that defence minister Luke Pollard said he only learned about the shortfall on the day it was announced. Andy Burnham, the man who will almost certainly be Prime Minister within three weeks, was reportedly told at the same time. The sitting Defence Minister and the incoming Prime Minister found out about the hole on the same morning it was announced to the country. Nearly a third of the new money does not exist yet.
John Healey resigned as Defence Secretary on 11 June because the settlement was not big enough. He was promised £13.5 billion in additional spending. He wanted £18 billion. The published plan offers £15 billion. That sounds like a compromise. But £4.7 billion of the £15 billion is unfunded. Subtract the hole and the committed increase is £10.3 billion, less than the amount Healey resigned over. The plan that was supposed to end the defence row has published a headline number that includes money nobody has identified, called it a plan and handed the receipt to the next government.
Subtract the hole and the committed increase is £10.3 billion, less than the amount Healey resigned over.
The £700 million coming out of the roads budget to help fill the gap has already hit specific projects. The A46 Newark Bypass and the A38 Derby Junctions, both part of the government’s own £27 billion Road Investment Strategy, are on the chopping block. Claire Ward, the East Midlands Mayor, said her region appeared to be the only one told it was sacrificing its road programme. She was not consulted. The TSSA general secretary said it was “because of decisions like this that Keir Starmer’s premiership came to an end.”
Starmer is publishing spending commitments eight days after announcing his resignation, binding a successor who did not write the plan, did not approve the plan and will spend his first Budget finding the money for it. If that is not a lame duck premiership, what is.